Exact Score: Moldova 0 - 0 Kazakhstan?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $461 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$460.53

Combined PnL

-$62.11

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$408.41

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$8.16

Yes8 traders

Total Value$52.12

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$70.28

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89¢	$271.04	$277.74	+$6.7	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
NM NM-P	Noavg 88¢	$129.2	$130.67	+$1.47	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$19.03	$31.72	+$12.69	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5	$11.11	+$6.11	47% 191-212 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$54.54	$5.93	-$1.52	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$24.27	$1.2	-$23.08	48% 677-745 (1422)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$21.7	$1.09	-$20.62	34% 736-1405 (2141)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$17.3	$0.87	-$16.44	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$25.58	$0.12	-$25.46	35% 750-1386 (2136)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.07	$0.1	-$1.97	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

Flaznorp

Invested

$271.04

Value

$277.74

PnL

+$6.7

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

NM-P

Invested

$129.2

Value

$130.67

PnL

+$1.47

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.03

Value

$31.72

PnL

+$12.69

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$6.11

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.54

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$1.52

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.27

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$23.08

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.7

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$20.62

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.3

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$16.44

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.58

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$25.46

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.97

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.