Will Moldova vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$14.27

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL+$10.99

Yes7 traders

Total Value$191.21

Total Shares605

Combined PnL+$3.28

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 68¢	$553.59	$557.66	+$4.07	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Noavg 68¢	$340	$342.5	+$2.5	33% 251-499 (750)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 68.6¢	$289.15	$292.58	+$3.44	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$136	+$36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$64	-$36
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$105.56	$107.26	+$1.7	36% 761-1361 (2122)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$121.25	$73.03	-$3.22	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.3¢	$51	$48.2	+$4.69
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$24.65	$24.83	-$7.92
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 69¢	$35.61	$35.87	+$0.26	53% 631-566 (1197)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 68¢	$32.86	$33.58	+$0.72	26% 250-703 (953)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 69¢	$33.81	$33.57	-$0.24	45% 214-259 (473)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$29.28	$29.75	+$0.47	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$21.7	$22.4	+$0.7	56% 307-245 (552)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$15.51	$16.01	+$0.5	30% 77-180 (257)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67¢	$12.46	$12.73	+$0.28	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$10	$10	+$0	10% 11-100 (111)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.44	$4.41	-$0.03	56% 3978-3112 (7090)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$3.89	$3.83	-$0.06	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.99	$1.96	-$0.03	20% 47-184 (231)

NM-P

Invested

$553.59

Value

$557.66

PnL

+$4.07

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Invested

$340

Value

$342.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Flaznorp

Invested

$289.15

Value

$292.58

PnL

+$3.44

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$105.56

Value

$107.26

PnL

+$1.7

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$121.25

Value

$73.03

PnL

-$3.22

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Both legs:

Yes$5133.3¢+$4.69

No$24.6568¢-$7.92

NotJump<$100

Invested

$35.61

Value

$35.87

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$32.86

Value

$33.58

PnL

+$0.72

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$33.81

Value

$33.57

PnL

-$0.24

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.28

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.47

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.7

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.51

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

3978-3112 (7090)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.