Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 57¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 13

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

-$36.59

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 57¢

+13% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares21,622

Combined PnL-$985.59

No17 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares26,095

Combined PnL+$949

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GG ggA11xcrCTR	Yesavg 49.3¢	$6.3K	$5.7K	-$678.18	— 2-9 (11)
RN1	Noavg 51.3¢	$4.7K	$5.2K	+$515.92	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51.2¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$354.38	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
12monkeysCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$264.76	38% 14-23 (37)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$17.68	53% 388-339 (727)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.1¢	$699.75	$678.04	-$21.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$400.96	$404.99	+$4.03
GC GC-P	Noavg 49.3¢	$953.37	$947.51	-$5.86	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P	Noavg 49.3¢	$924.41	$919.01	-$5.4	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FO ForMyFamily1CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$500	$453.13	-$46.87	— 4-3 (7)
FO foooool	Noavg 50.7¢	$258.91	$262.97	+$4.06	39% 37-59 (96)
VE Venusian	Noavg 50¢	$208.85	$233.91	+$25.06	34% 735-1404 (2139)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 50¢	$422.62	$228.77	+$37.66	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 49.2¢	$161.93	$164.5	+$2.57	47% 189-212 (401)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 49¢	$121.61	$130.29	+$8.69	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SU suntori	Noavg 50¢	$95.23	$106.66	+$11.43	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$76.47	$81.25	+$4.78	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 51¢	$61.51	$60.68	-$0.83	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 49¢	$47.53	$47.53	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$45.2	$46.8	+$1.6	53% 631-566 (1197)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 50¢	$49.86	$41.35	-$0.13	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.61	$9.61	-$0	60% 689-467 (1156)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.37	$7.22	-$0.15	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$4.99	$4.43	-$0.56	20% 47-184 (231)

ggA11xcrCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,330.75

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$678.18

Record

—

2-9 (11)

RN1

Invested

$4,661.71

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$515.92

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,100.88

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$354.38

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

12monkeysCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,857.94

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$264.76

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,750.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,100.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.68

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Both legs:

No$699.7551.1¢-$21.71

Yes$400.9650¢+$4.03

GC-P

Invested

$953.37

Value

$947.51

PnL

-$5.86

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P

Invested

$924.41

Value

$919.01

PnL

-$5.4

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ForMyFamily1CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$453.13

PnL

-$46.87

Record

—

4-3 (7)

foooool

Invested

$258.91

Value

$262.97

PnL

+$4.06

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

Venusian

Invested

$208.85

Value

$233.91

PnL

+$25.06

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

38791873984189

Invested

$422.62

Value

$228.77

PnL

+$37.66

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$161.93

Value

$164.5

PnL

+$2.57

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

MadridTime

Invested

$121.61

Value

$130.29

PnL

+$8.69

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

suntori

Invested

$95.23

Value

$106.66

PnL

+$11.43

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.47

Value

$81.25

PnL

+$4.78

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$61.51

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$0.83

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$47.53

Value

$47.53

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$45.2

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.86

Value

$41.35

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

689-467 (1156)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$7.37

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.56

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.