Luxembourg vs. Estonia: O/U 3.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 82¢ · $665 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$665.09
$6.88
81.9¢ → 81.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 82¢ | $328 | $324 | -$4 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 17¢ | $117.67 | $124.31 | +$6.64 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 17.2¢ | $80.73 | $84.68 | +$3.94 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $83.52 | $83.52 | +$0 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $43.96 | $44.23 | +$0.27 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $1.44 | $1.48 | +$0.04 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $1.48 | $1.46 | -$0.02 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $1.42 | $1.42 | +$0 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
0xheavy888Invested
$328
Value
$324
PnL
-$4
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$117.67
Value
$124.31
PnL
+$6.64
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$80.73
Value
$84.68
PnL
+$3.94
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$83.52
Value
$83.52
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
Invested
$43.96
Value
$44.23
PnL
+$0.27
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.48
PnL
+$0.04
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.