Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Luxembourg vs. Estonia: O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$13.76

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 38.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,527

Combined PnL+$31.66

Under3 traders

Total Value$796.99

Total Shares1,301

Combined PnL-$17.9

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 37.7¢	$696.22	$711.56	+$15.33	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0xheavy888	Underavg 62.6¢	$427.59	$416.75	-$10.83	53% 388-339 (727)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 62.6¢	$384.46	$377.41	-$7.05	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$311.88	$321.86	+$9.98	36% 761-1361 (2122)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$224.06	$226.7	+$2.64	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$161.5	$163.63	+$2.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$62.56	$63.08	+$0.51
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 38¢	$161.5	$163.63	+$2.13	33% 251-499 (750)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 37.9¢	$117.46	$119.21	+$1.75	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 37.3¢	$32.26	$17.48	+$0.28	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 35¢	$124.06	$13.03	+$1.97	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.6	$7.6	+$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 36.7¢	$3.19	$3.35	+$0.15	48% 677-745 (1422)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$2.96	$3.04	+$0.08	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 62¢	$2.85	$2.83	-$0.02	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$696.22

Value

$711.56

PnL

+$15.33

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$427.59

Value

$416.75

PnL

-$10.83

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$384.46

Value

$377.41

PnL

-$7.05

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$311.88

Value

$321.86

PnL

+$9.98

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$224.06

Value

$226.7

PnL

+$2.64

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$161.5

Value

$163.63

PnL

+$2.13

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$117.46

Value

$119.21

PnL

+$1.75

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.26

Value

$17.48

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$124.06

Value

$13.03

PnL

+$1.97

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.