Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Luxembourg win on 2026-11-13?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$264.84

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 40.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,788

Combined PnL+$265.68

No1 trader

Total Value$3.64

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.84

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$203.64	42% 291-405 (696)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$615.83	$660.93	+$45.1	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41¢	$304.63	$404.93	+$100.3
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$311.2	$256	-$55.2
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$81.1	$100.89	+$19.79	61% 961-608 (1569)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$47.6	$64.85	+$17.25	40% 78-117 (195)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$30	$40.87	+$10.87	52% 187-174 (361)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$21.52	$26.9	+$7.38	54% 994-856 (1850)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$18.59	$25.33	+$6.74	26% 153-428 (581)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.49	$3.64	-$0.84	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,127.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$203.64

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$615.83

Value

$660.93

PnL

+$45.1

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.1

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$19.79

Record

61%

961-608 (1569)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.6

Value

$64.85

PnL

+$17.25

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$10.87

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.52

Value

$26.9

PnL

+$7.38

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.59

Value

$25.33

PnL

+$6.74

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.49

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.84

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.