Exact Score: Luxembourg 0 - 2 Estonia?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 95¢ · $702 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$702.1
$9.72
94.8¢ → 94.8¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.8¢ | $280.36 | $280.46 | +$0.1 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94.7¢ | $117.64 | $117.76 | +$0.12 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.7¢ | $113.2 | $113.32 | +$0.12 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $525.37 | $105.69 | +$10.31 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $47.65 | $47.35 | -$0.3 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $14.26 | $14.3 | +$0.04 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $8.78 | $8.81 | +$0.03 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $6.89 | $6.76 | -$0.13 | 36% 326-587 (913) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $6.26 | $5.81 | -$0.45 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $1.46 | $1.36 | -$0.09 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $0.52 | $0.48 | -$0.04 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$280.36
Value
$280.46
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$117.64
Value
$117.76
PnL
+$0.12
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$113.2
Value
$113.32
PnL
+$0.12
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$525.37
Value
$105.69
PnL
+$10.31
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$47.65
Value
$47.35
PnL
-$0.3
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0.03
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.76
PnL
-$0.13
Record
36%
326-587 (913)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.04
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.