Will Estonia win on 2026-11-13?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$20

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL+$20

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 70.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.73	59% 3556-2429 (5985)
GC GC-P	Noavg 70.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$18.06	28% 171-441 (612)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74¢	$983.76	$957.7	-$26.06	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 72¢	$517.67	$521.26	+$3.59	33% 585-1187 (1772)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 71¢	$219.81	$224.45	+$4.64	34% 592-1164 (1756)
VE Venusian	Noavg 71¢	$185.59	$189.51	+$3.92	32% 565-1192 (1757)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 71.9¢	$186.22	$125.05	+$1.25	54% 1032-892 (1924)
SE sentrio	Noavg 74¢	$105.79	$103.66	-$2.13	41% 589-849 (1438)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$55.06	$54.7	-$0.36	54% 211-181 (392)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 70¢	$47.6	$48.96	+$1.36	42% 97-133 (230)

NM-P

Invested

$1,181.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.73

Record

59%

3556-2429 (5985)

GC-P

Invested

$1,020.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$18.06

Record

28%

171-441 (612)

Flaznorp

Invested

$983.76

Value

$957.7

PnL

-$26.06

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

LightParadox

Invested

$517.67

Value

$521.26

PnL

+$3.59

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

MadridTime

Invested

$219.81

Value

$224.45

PnL

+$4.64

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

Venusian

Invested

$185.59

Value

$189.51

PnL

+$3.92

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ghorrock

Invested

$186.22

Value

$125.05

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

sentrio

Invested

$105.79

Value

$103.66

PnL

-$2.13

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$55.06

Value

$54.7

PnL

-$0.36

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$48.96

PnL

+$1.36

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.