Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Luxembourg vs. Estonia: Both Teams to Score

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 47¢ · $651 held · ends Nov 13

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$651.5

Combined PnL

$1.96

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$266.41

Total Shares493

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes7 traders

Total Value$385.08

Total Shares834

Combined PnL+$1.9

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 54¢	$215.99	$215.99	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$140.42	$140.6	+$0.18	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$120.84	$120.89	+$0.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$61.47	$62.13	+$0.67	36% 326-587 (913)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$50.36	$50.43	+$0.06	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$26.45	$26.74	+$0.29	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$21.05	$21.39	+$0.34	48% 677-745 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$11.36	$11.73	+$0.38	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$1.6	$1.6	+$0	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888

Invested

$215.99

Value

$215.99

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.42

Value

$140.6

PnL

+$0.18

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.84

Value

$120.89

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.47

Value

$62.13

PnL

+$0.67

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$50.36

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.45

Value

$26.74

PnL

+$0.29

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.05

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.36

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.