Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-11-16?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$19.6

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 96.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,940

Combined PnL+$13.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.3

Total Shares1,546

Combined PnL+$6.1

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.12	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.6¢	$900.08	$893.54	-$6.54	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96.6¢	$551.55	$554.4	+$2.85	43% 578-773 (1351)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.9¢	$506.74	$507.76	+$1.02	35% 674-1226 (1900)
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.6¢	$354.36	$356.19	+$1.83	59% 3973-2751 (6724)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97.5¢	$171.23	$170.82	-$0.4	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 96.6¢	$137.75	$138.75	+$1	48% 514-565 (1079)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.1K	$98.56	+$8.24	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$36.42	$42.41	+$5.99	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$32.4	$32.78	+$0.38	56% 703-543 (1246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.79	$0.89	+$0.11	41% 1224-1758 (2982)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,066.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.12

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

Limousin

Invested

$900.08

Value

$893.54

PnL

-$6.54

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

GC-P

Invested

$551.55

Value

$554.4

PnL

+$2.85

Record

43%

578-773 (1351)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$506.74

Value

$507.76

PnL

+$1.02

Record

35%

674-1226 (1900)

NM-P

Invested

$354.36

Value

$356.19

PnL

+$1.83

Record

59%

3973-2751 (6724)

LightParadox

Invested

$171.23

Value

$170.82

PnL

-$0.4

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$137.75

Value

$138.75

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

514-565 (1079)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,057.45

Value

$98.56

PnL

+$8.24

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.42

Value

$42.41

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$32.78

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

703-543 (1246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.11

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.