Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$33.46

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 39.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,911

Combined PnL-$45.1

Under4 traders

Total Value$627.64

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL+$11.64

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 41¢	$1.0K	$970.18	-$36.34	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
nigiri99	Underavg 60¢	$292.2	$294.64	+$2.44	52% 471-427 (898)
ZZ Zzzz87	Underavg 58.9¢	$241.08	$245.4	+$4.32	62% 73-44 (117)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 41.4¢	$117.84	$112.73	-$5.11	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$50.82	$54.6	+$3.78	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 42¢	$265.86	$38.5	-$0.75	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 58¢	$31.9	$33	+$1.1	56% 307-245 (552)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$26	$24.85	-$1.15	33% 251-499 (750)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41.9¢	$30.39	$23.37	-$1.06	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.8	$3.1	-$0.7	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,006.52

Value

$970.18

PnL

-$36.34

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$292.2

Value

$294.64

PnL

+$2.44

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Zzzz87

Under

Invested

$241.08

Value

$245.4

PnL

+$4.32

Record

62%

73-44 (117)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$117.84

Value

$112.73

PnL

-$5.11

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$50.82

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$3.78

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$265.86

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.9

Value

$33

PnL

+$1.1

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26

Value

$24.85

PnL

-$1.15

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.39

Value

$23.37

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.