Liechtenstein leading at halftime?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $612 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$611.86

Combined PnL

-$9.09

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 96.2¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$587.64

Total Shares611

Combined PnL-$3.4

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.22

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$5.69

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.3¢	$258.44	$257.99	-$0.44	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96¢	$190.39	$190.98	+$0.59	35% 749-1385 (2134)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 94¢	$93.96	$96.26	+$2.3	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$22.42	$22.47	+$0.05	35% 735-1379 (2114)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 93¢	$42.5	$19.93	-$5.9	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$18	$12.02	-$5.97	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$9.65	$10.09	+$0.44	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.84	$1.73	-$0.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.42	$0.39	-$0.03	47% 189-212 (401)

SnakeBall

Invested

$258.44

Value

$257.99

PnL

-$0.44

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LightParadox

Invested

$190.39

Value

$190.98

PnL

+$0.59

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$93.96

Value

$96.26

PnL

+$2.3

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$22.42

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$5.9

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$5.97

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.