Will Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 85¢ · $507 held · ends Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$507.05

Combined PnL

$3.74

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$445.01

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$6.02

Yes5 traders

Total Value$62.03

Total Shares388

Combined PnL-$2.29

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 83.4¢	$329.14	$333.5	+$4.36	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 82¢	$63	$64.25	+$1.24	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$37.89	$37.89	+$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 84¢	$31.92	$31.92	-$0	56% 307-245 (552)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$19.44	$17.28	-$2.16	52% 471-427 (898)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$14.93	$15.35	+$0.42	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$4.24	$4.29	+$0.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2	$1.78	-$0.22	20% 47-184 (231)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.8	+$0.05	43% 808-1065 (1873)

GC-P

Invested

$329.14

Value

$333.5

PnL

+$4.36

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$63

Value

$64.25

PnL

+$1.24

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.89

Value

$37.89

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.92

Value

$31.92

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$17.28

PnL

-$2.16

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.