Liechtenstein vs. Azerbaijan: Both Teams to Score
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$1.5K
-$31.14
79¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 80¢ | $888 | $882.45 | -$5.55 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $274.64 | $240.86 | -$33.78 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
 nigiri99 | Noavg 80¢ | $100.8 | $101.43 | +$0.63 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $71.16 | $80.17 | +$9.01 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $57.76 | $60.8 | +$3.04 | 40% 17-26 (43) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $48.08 | $43.19 | -$4.89 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $17.97 | $16.59 | -$1.38 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
SU suntori<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $14.28 | $15.03 | +$0.75 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $11.39 | $12.83 | +$1.44 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $3.61 | $3.23 | -$0.38 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.28 | $1.25 | -$0.03 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
0xheavy888Invested
$888
Value
$882.45
PnL
-$5.55
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
Invested
$274.64
Value
$240.86
PnL
-$33.78
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
nigiri99Invested
$100.8
Value
$101.43
PnL
+$0.63
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$71.16
Value
$80.17
PnL
+$9.01
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$57.76
Value
$60.8
PnL
+$3.04
Record
40%
17-26 (43)
Invested
$48.08
Value
$43.19
PnL
-$4.89
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$17.97
Value
$16.59
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$0.75
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
Invested
$11.39
Value
$12.83
PnL
+$1.44
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$3.61
Value
$3.23
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.