Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 7 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-11-13?

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 19¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 39%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$121.4

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 18.5¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$886.86

Total Shares4,886

Combined PnL-$130.7

Yes11 traders

Total Value$809.88

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$9.3

No — 39%Yes — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$570.81	$458.15	-$112.66	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 80.1¢	$229.06	$228.31	-$0.75	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 80¢	$196.01	$198.46	+$2.45	35% 735-1379 (2114)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$148.41	$152.53	+$4.12	33% 251-499 (750)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 79.1¢	$141.03	$144.36	+$3.34	36% 761-1361 (2122)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$115.08	$118.15	+$3.06	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
KL kleomarcus<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$81	$81.5	+$0.5	— 9-0 (9)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$67.1	$60.36	-$6.74	45% 13-16 (29)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$46.04	$49.07	+$3.03	61% 1003-631 (1634)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 79.4¢	$119.44	$45.45	+$0.45	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$50.85	$40.14	-$10.71	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 20.4¢	$37.04	$32.71	-$4.33	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$32	$32.4	+$0.4	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$28.27	$24.82	-$3.45	47% 189-212 (401)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 81.4¢	$12	$11.95	-$0.05	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$10	$9.88	-$0.12	10% 11-100 (111)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$5.2	$5.27	+$0.07	34% 735-1404 (2139)
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$3.24	$3.24	+$0	52% 471-427 (898)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$570.81

Value

$458.15

PnL

-$112.66

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$229.06

Value

$228.31

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$196.01

Value

$198.46

PnL

+$2.45

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$148.41

Value

$152.53

PnL

+$4.12

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$141.03

Value

$144.36

PnL

+$3.34

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$115.08

Value

$118.15

PnL

+$3.06

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

kleomarcus<$100

Yes

Invested

$81

Value

$81.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

—

9-0 (9)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR<$100

Invested

$67.1

Value

$60.36

PnL

-$6.74

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.04

Value

$49.07

PnL

+$3.03

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$119.44

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$50.85

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$10.71

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$37.04

Value

$32.71

PnL

-$4.33

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$28.27

Value

$24.82

PnL

-$3.45

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.07

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.