Latvia vs. Armenia: O/U 4.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$133.35

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,336

Combined PnL+$102.71

Over8 traders

Total Value$70.04

Total Shares5,590

Combined PnL-$236.07

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 98¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$30.76	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
KupaKeepKlan	Underavg 97.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$45.75	99% 85-1 (86)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 95.9¢	$746.6	$771.91	+$25.31	78% 379-110 (489)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 98¢	$72.52	$73.41	+$0.89	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 5¢	$199.4	$48.73	-$150.67	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 5.1¢	$31.18	$9.52	-$21.66	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$49.28	$5.63	-$43.65	48% 471-508 (979)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$12.26	$3.95	-$8.31	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 4.6¢	$4.6	$0.8	-$3.8	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$7.35	$0.74	-$6.62	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.4¢	$1.6	$0.53	-$1.07	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.43	$0.14	-$0.3	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,489.22

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$30.76

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

KupaKeepKlan

Under

Invested

$2,847.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$45.75

Record

99%

85-1 (86)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$746.6

Value

$771.91

PnL

+$25.31

Record

78%

379-110 (489)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$72.52

Value

$73.41

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$199.4

Value

$48.73

PnL

-$150.67

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.18

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$21.66

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.28

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$43.65

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.26

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$8.31

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.6

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.35

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$6.62

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.07

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.3

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.