Latvia vs. Armenia: O/U 3.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 80¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$2.6K
-$19.05
79.9¢ → 79.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 80¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.6 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 79.5¢ | $635.99 | $627.99 | -$8 | 56% 663-529 (1192) |
SU suntori | Underavg 80.4¢ | $476.19 | $465.22 | -$10.97 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 80¢ | $260.23 | $116.26 | -$0.48 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 19.2¢ | $103.01 | $104.48 | +$1.47 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $97.58 | $99.9 | +$2.32 | 38% 1339-2199 (3538) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 80¢ | $32 | $32.14 | +$0.14 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $17.7 | $17.7 | +$0 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $2.51 | $2.57 | +$0.06 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
Invested
$1,111.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.6
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
0xheavy888Invested
$635.99
Value
$627.99
PnL
-$8
Record
56%
663-529 (1192)
Invested
$476.19
Value
$465.22
PnL
-$10.97
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$260.23
Value
$116.26
PnL
-$0.48
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
Invested
$103.01
Value
$104.48
PnL
+$1.47
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$97.58
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$2.32
Record
38%
1339-2199 (3538)
Invested
$32
Value
$32.14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$17.7
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
Invested
$2.51
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.