Latvia vs. Armenia: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over68¢Under32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$25.49

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,115

Combined PnL+$9.52

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,226

Combined PnL-$35.01

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 67¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 32.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29.14	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 67¢	$755.27	$766.55	+$11.27	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 68¢	$255.68	$253.8	-$1.88	58% 114-81 (195)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 33¢	$228.25	$221.52	-$6.73	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 32¢	$251.6	$20.08	+$1.06	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 67¢	$6.63	$6.75	+$0.13	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$5.23	$5.12	-$0.11	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.01	$2.92	-$0.09	35% 628-1146 (1774)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,415.33

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,135.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29.14

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$755.27

Value

$766.55

PnL

+$11.27

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$255.68

Value

$253.8

PnL

-$1.88

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$228.25

Value

$221.52

PnL

-$6.73

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$251.6

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.01

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.09

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.