Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Latvia vs. Armenia: O/U 0.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 27¢ · $879 held · ended Nov 15

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

Total Value

$879.28

Combined PnL

$260.2

Smart Money Entry

14.1¢ → 26.5¢

+88% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$732.64

Total Shares3,207

Combined PnL+$270.53

Over1 trader

Total Value$146.64

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$10.33

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 12.5¢	$184.21	$302.63	+$118.41	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 18.1¢	$131.53	$192.9	+$61.37	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 80.7¢	$156.97	$146.64	-$10.33	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 11¢	$75.14	$143.25	+$68.11	35% 628-1146 (1774)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 23.8¢	$27.72	$30.81	+$3.1	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 17.6¢	$12.08	$18.22	+$6.15	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$7.46	$15.66	+$8.2	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 20.5¢	$11.59	$11.85	+$0.26	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 13.4¢	$6.25	$9.76	+$3.51	41% 126-183 (309)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.5	$5.25	+$0.75	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.26	+$0.12	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.5	$1.05	+$0.55	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$184.21

Value

$302.63

PnL

+$118.41

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$131.53

Value

$192.9

PnL

+$61.37

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$156.97

Value

$146.64

PnL

-$10.33

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$75.14

Value

$143.25

PnL

+$68.11

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.72

Value

$30.81

PnL

+$3.1

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.08

Value

$18.22

PnL

+$6.15

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.46

Value

$15.66

PnL

+$8.2

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$0.26

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.25

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$3.51

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.