Will Latvia win on 2026-11-15?

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 71¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 15

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$308.92

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares31,523

Combined PnL+$397.93

No16 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares23,305

Combined PnL-$89.01

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HY HyugaPSCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$7.7K	$8.1K	+$417.52	— 0-7 (7)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$46.04	35% 628-1146 (1774)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$15	2% 5-204 (209)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$15	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$14.29	1% 1-104 (105)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$17.79	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.39	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
GC GC-P	Noavg 71.8¢	$872.27	$871.83	-$0.44	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P	Noavg 72¢	$703.56	$698.67	-$4.89	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 70¢	$560	$564	+$4	30% 486-1128 (1614)
LI Limousin	Noavg 72¢	$300.62	$290.18	-$10.44	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
0xheavy888	Noavg 72¢	$144	$143	-$1	56% 663-529 (1192)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 69.7¢	$156.02	$75.06	-$6.78	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$57.13	$57.31	+$0.18	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$35.76	$35.16	-$0.6	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 72¢	$27	$26.81	-$0.19	59% 746-512 (1258)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$17.13	$16.52	-$0.61	48% 469-508 (977)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 72¢	$12.31	$11.88	-$0.43	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$7.97	$7.69	-$0.28	34% 460-894 (1354)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.88	$3.99	+$0.11	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.69	$3.69	+$0	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$3.02	$2.72	-$0.3	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

HyugaPSCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,711.65

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$417.52

Record

—

0-7 (7)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$6,630.18

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$46.04

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

5-204 (209)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$14.29

Record

1-104 (105)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,123.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.79

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,064.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.39

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

GC-P

Invested

$872.27

Value

$871.83

PnL

-$0.44

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P

Invested

$703.56

Value

$698.67

PnL

-$4.89

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$560

Value

$564

PnL

+$4

Record

30%

486-1128 (1614)

Limousin

Invested

$300.62

Value

$290.18

PnL

-$10.44

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

0xheavy888

Invested

$144

Value

$143

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

38791873984189

Invested

$156.02

Value

$75.06

PnL

-$6.78

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

suntori<$100

Invested

$57.13

Value

$57.31

PnL

+$0.18

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.76

Value

$35.16

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$26.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

59%

746-512 (1258)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.13

Value

$16.52

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$12.31

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$0.43

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.97

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$0.28

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.3

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.