Latvia vs. Armenia: Draw at halftime?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$296.78

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,845

Combined PnL+$317.52

No3 traders

Total Value$23.33

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$20.74

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$194.43	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$219.52
└ No leg	Noavg 23.2¢	$700.69	$725.78	+$25.09
LI Limousin	Yesavg 92.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$88.22	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 89¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$114.89	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 94.6¢	$945.56	$999.48	+$53.93	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$1.2K	$932.54	-$259.2	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ No leg	Noavg 32.7¢	$672.73	$494.27	-$178.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90¢	$519	$438.27	-$80.73
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 49.4¢	$276.47	$559.31	+$282.84	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 95.4¢	$404.65	$423.75	+$19.1	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 90.9¢	$267.76	$375.39	+$107.63	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
└ No leg	Noavg 8.3¢	$73.16	$212.75	+$139.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.9¢	$194.6	$162.64	-$31.96
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$289.49	$347.67	+$58.17	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.6¢	$158.66	$209.36	+$50.7
└ No leg	Noavg 22.7¢	$130.83	$138.3	+$7.47
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$178.02	$256.65	+$50.75	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ No leg	Noavg 9.9¢	$82.5	$199.65	+$62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91¢	$68.25	$57	-$11.25
poshposh	Yesavg 89¢	$134.62	$122.98	-$11.65	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 90¢	$132.43	$111.83	-$20.6	35% 628-1146 (1774)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$99	$99.95	+$0.95	99% 654-9 (663)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 49.8¢	$19.12	$38.34	+$19.22	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$34.94	$16.44	-$18.5	41% 160-234 (394)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$9.04	$4.25	-$4.78	59% 747-512 (1259)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$0.1	$2.64	+$2.54	41% 725-1037 (1762)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,111.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$194.43

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Yes$1,411.290¢-$219.52

No$700.6923.2¢+$25.09

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$1,048.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.22

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$1,151.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$114.89

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$945.56

Value

$999.48

PnL

+$53.93

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,191.73

Value

$932.54

PnL

-$259.2

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

No$672.7332.7¢-$178.46

Yes$51990¢-$80.73

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$276.47

Value

$559.31

PnL

+$282.84

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$404.65

Value

$423.75

PnL

+$19.1

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$267.76

Value

$375.39

PnL

+$107.63

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Both legs:

No$73.168.3¢+$139.59

Yes$194.690.9¢-$31.96

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$289.49

Value

$347.67

PnL

+$58.17

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Yes$158.6657.6¢+$50.7

No$130.8322.7¢+$7.47

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$178.02

Value

$256.65

PnL

+$50.75

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Invested

$134.62

Value

$122.98

PnL

-$11.65

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$132.43

Value

$111.83

PnL

-$20.6

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Yes

Invested

$99

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.95

Record

99%

654-9 (663)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.12

Value

$38.34

PnL

+$19.22

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Invested

$34.94

Value

$16.44

PnL

-$18.5

Record

41%

160-234 (394)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$4.78

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$2.54

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.