Armenia leading at halftime?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$10.5K
$1.1K
78.2¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79¢ | $4.2K | $4.8K | +$580.26 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
 RN1 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$52.08 | 54% 6017-5091 (11108) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 71.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$262.17 | 38% 1318-2168 (3486) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 79.5¢ | $876.63 | $992.76 | +$116.14 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 70.4¢ | $204.02 | $260.71 | +$56.69 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 79¢ | $89.59 | $102.07 | +$12.48 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 89¢ | $94.45 | $100.38 | +$5.92 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $75.84 | $86.4 | +$10.56 | 48% 1300-1386 (2686) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $23.41 | $30.49 | +$7.08 | 48% 471-508 (979) |
Invested
$4,208.46
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$580.26
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
RN1Invested
$2,802.92
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$52.08
Record
54%
6017-5091 (11108)
Invested
$1,017.17
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$262.17
Record
38%
1318-2168 (3486)
Invested
$876.63
Value
$992.76
PnL
+$116.14
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
Invested
$204.02
Value
$260.71
PnL
+$56.69
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$89.59
Value
$102.07
PnL
+$12.48
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
Invested
$94.45
Value
$100.38
PnL
+$5.92
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
dips.<$100Invested
$75.84
Value
$86.4
PnL
+$10.56
Record
48%
1300-1386 (2686)
Invested
$23.41
Value
$30.49
PnL
+$7.08
Record
48%
471-508 (979)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
No — $4.8K
RN1
No — $2.9K
Limousin
No — $1.3K
MadridTime
No — $992.76
GoalLineGhost
No — $260.71
topdogbigboi
No — $102.07
38791873984189
No — $100.38
dips.
No — $86.4
0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382
No — $30.49