Exact Score: Latvia 0 - 2 Armenia?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$28.31

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 94¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,210

Combined PnL+$24.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$44.74

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$3.88

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 93¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.46	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93¢	$713.95	$721.63	+$7.68	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$215.02	$204.91	-$10.12	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$103.44	$109.27	+$5.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$111.58	$95.64	-$15.94
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 90.3¢	$103.46	$107.75	+$4.29	35% 628-1146 (1774)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 92¢	$46	$46	+$0	48% 471-508 (979)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$28.51	$28.51	+$0	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$59.01	$22.22	+$7.63	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$24.37	$20.89	-$3.48	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.9	$1.63	-$0.27	46% 3240-3776 (7016)

Limousin

Invested

$1,159.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.46

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

LightParadox

Invested

$713.95

Value

$721.63

PnL

+$7.68

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$215.02

Value

$204.91

PnL

-$10.12

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

No$103.4489¢+$5.82

Yes$111.587¢-$15.94

LuckyLoo

Invested

$103.46

Value

$107.75

PnL

+$4.29

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$46

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.51

Value

$28.51

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.01

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$7.63

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.37

Value

$20.89

PnL

-$3.48

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.27

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.