Exact Score: Latvia 0 - 1 Armenia?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$9.59
84.5¢ → 81.5¢
-4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 84¢ | $813.97 | $598.77 | +$9.47 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $256.83 | $294.73 | +$37.9 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $177.31 | $213.79 | +$36.48 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.6¢ | $79.52 | $80.94 | +$1.42 | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 87¢ | $277.93 | $259.45 | -$18.48 | 42% 548-747 (1295) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $80.42 | $81.38 | +$0.95 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $54.68 | $50.33 | -$4.35 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $26.63 | $28.2 | +$1.57 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $21.89 | $22.25 | +$0.36 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.26 | $4.26 | +$0 | 54% 6017-5091 (11108) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4 | $4.1 | +$0.1 | 38% 1342-2205 (3547) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.05 | +$0.05 | 37% 1336-2230 (3566) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.46 | $2.19 | +$0.73 | 41% 1175-1673 (2848) |
Invested
$813.97
Value
$598.77
PnL
+$9.47
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$256.83
Value
$294.73
PnL
+$37.9
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Both legs:
Invested
$277.93
Value
$259.45
PnL
-$18.48
Record
42%
548-747 (1295)
Invested
$80.42
Value
$81.38
PnL
+$0.95
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
Invested
$54.68
Value
$50.33
PnL
-$4.35
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
Invested
$26.63
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$1.57
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$21.89
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$0.36
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6017-5091 (11108)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1342-2205 (3547)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
37%
1336-2230 (3566)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.73
Record
41%
1175-1673 (2848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.