Latvia vs. Armenia: Both Teams to Score

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$67.66

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 74.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL+$250.42

Yes7 traders

Total Value$344.83

Total Shares1,175

Combined PnL-$182.77

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Noavg 56.9¢	$571.42	$748.36	+$176.94	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$639.26	$470.15	-$39.1	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$272.09	$334.88	+$62.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.4¢	$225.07	$135.27	-$101.89
0xheavy888	Noavg 50¢	$226.91	$300.26	+$73.35	56% 665-530 (1195)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 37.3¢	$215.93	$109.98	-$25.29	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$151.04	$89.39	-$61.65	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$150.8	$89.25	-$61.55	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$37.6	$23.2	-$14.4	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$36.96	$22.33	-$14.63	41% 126-183 (309)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$15	$10.12	-$4.89	49% 96-101 (197)
RN1<$100	Noavg 63¢	$1.1	$1.24	+$0.14	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.56	-$0.37	35% 628-1146 (1774)

suntori

Invested

$571.42

Value

$748.36

PnL

+$176.94

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$639.26

Value

$470.15

PnL

-$39.1

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

No$272.0960.5¢+$62.79

Yes$225.0742.4¢-$101.89

0xheavy888

Invested

$226.91

Value

$300.26

PnL

+$73.35

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$215.93

Value

$109.98

PnL

-$25.29

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.04

Value

$89.39

PnL

-$61.65

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.8

Value

$89.25

PnL

-$61.55

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.6

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$14.4

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.96

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$14.63

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$4.89

Record

49%

96-101 (197)

RN1<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.37

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.