Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 5.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$18.09

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.4¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,972

Combined PnL-$6.85

Over5 traders

Total Value$119.17

Total Shares2,911

Combined PnL-$11.25

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 99.2¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$24.92	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 97¢	$715.58	$733.66	+$18.08	75% 234-76 (310)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 94¢	$256.71	$252.98	-$3.73	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Under leg	Underavg 94¢	$128.66	$130.57	+$1.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 4.8¢	$128.05	$122.41	-$5.64
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 5¢	$101.5	$101.5	+$0	48% 286-304 (590)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$7.96	$10.08	+$2.12	35% 438-797 (1235)
DV dv-pm<$100	Underavg 94¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0	44% 30-38 (68)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3.1¢	$11.25	$3.83	-$7.42	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3.4¢	$7.84	$1.95	-$5.9	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 5.2¢	$1.86	$1.81	-$0.06	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$5,201.4

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$24.92

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$715.58

Value

$733.66

PnL

+$18.08

Record

75%

234-76 (310)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$256.71

Value

$252.98

PnL

-$3.73

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

Under$128.6694¢+$1.92

Over$128.054.8¢-$5.64

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$101.5

Value

$101.5

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.96

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$2.12

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

dv-pm<$100

Under

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

30-38 (68)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.25

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$7.42

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.84

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$5.9

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.