Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 4.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$1.78

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 98.1¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,183

Combined PnL+$11.37

Over6 traders

Total Value$54.17

Total Shares716

Combined PnL-$13.14

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 95.5¢	$552.92	$556.11	+$3.18	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
FR freeman123	Underavg 95¢	$300	$298.42	-$1.58	13% 11-71 (82)
RN1	Underavg 95.1¢	$215.09	$224.33	+$9.24	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 12.3¢	$339.75	$129.48	-$209.95	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Under leg	Underavg 93¢	$87.82	$92.69	+$4.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 12.3¢	$251.14	$36.79	-$214.82
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 87¢	$93.87	$93.87	+$0	75% 187-64 (251)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$30.86	$33.43	+$2.57	48% 286-304 (590)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 91¢	$10.91	$11.21	+$0.3	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$20.6	$7.2	-$13.4	42% 991-1360 (2351)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 4.6¢	$8.81	$6.75	-$2.06	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.68	+$0.23	45% 801-984 (1785)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$3.87	$3.87	+$0	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$2	$1.75	-$0.25	52% 815-747 (1562)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.8¢	$1.17	$1.17	-$0	35% 438-797 (1235)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$552.92

Value

$556.11

PnL

+$3.18

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

freeman123

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$298.42

PnL

-$1.58

Record

13%

11-71 (82)

RN1

Under

Invested

$215.09

Value

$224.33

PnL

+$9.24

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$339.75

Value

$129.48

PnL

-$209.95

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Under$87.8293¢+$4.87

Over$251.1412.3¢-$214.82

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$93.87

Value

$93.87

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

187-64 (251)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.86

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$2.57

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$10.91

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$0.3

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.6

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$13.4

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.81

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$2.06

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.23

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.