Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 1.5

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$541.19

Smart Money Entry

33.9¢ → 52.5¢

+55% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,060

Combined PnL+$552.35

Over9 traders

Total Value$931.94

Total Shares1,478

Combined PnL-$11.16

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 29.5¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$531.51	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Under leg	Underavg 29.5¢	$725.63	$1.3K	+$565.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.7¢	$425.45	$390.99	-$34.46
RN1	Underavg 34.1¢	$763.35	$1.2K	+$392.16	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.8¢	$759.45	$934.31	+$174.86	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$494.62	$472.9	-$21.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.4¢	$264.83	$461.41	+$196.58
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Overavg 74.1¢	$380.91	$388.36	+$7.44	51% 70-66 (136)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 58.7¢	$381	$367.91	-$13.09	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 31.2¢	$121.33	$204.25	+$82.92	37% 957-1658 (2615)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$383.28	$167.19	-$14.67	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$130.37	$113.12	-$36.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$51.63	$54.08	+$21.81
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$78.42	$98.54	+$20.12	37% 966-1631 (2597)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 34.2¢	$49.04	$75.3	+$26.25	36% 928-1642 (2570)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 29.9¢	$38.3	$67.28	+$28.98	36% 945-1666 (2611)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 55.5¢	$55.5	$56.5	+$1	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 53.9¢	$61.17	$53.91	-$7.25	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$17.42	$17.56	+$0.15	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$16.2	$15.15	-$1.05	52% 815-747 (1562)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$14.16	$14.52	+$0.36	47% 967-1091 (2058)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$9.79	$11	+$1.21	45% 801-984 (1785)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 25¢	$10	$10.2	+$0.2	35% 438-797 (1235)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 41¢	$6.15	$7.88	+$1.73	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.96	$7.03	+$0.07	42% 991-1360 (2351)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 25¢	$19.28	$0.73	-$0	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,151.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$531.51

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Under$725.6329.5¢+$565.97

Over$425.4551.7¢-$34.46

RN1

Under

Invested

$763.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$392.16

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$759.45

Value

$934.31

PnL

+$174.86

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

Over$494.6252.8¢-$21.73

Under$264.8328.4¢+$196.58

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Over

Invested

$380.91

Value

$388.36

PnL

+$7.44

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$381

Value

$367.91

PnL

-$13.09

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$121.33

Value

$204.25

PnL

+$82.92

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$383.28

Value

$167.19

PnL

-$14.67

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Over$130.3754.7¢-$36.48

Under$51.6350.1¢+$21.81

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$78.42

Value

$98.54

PnL

+$20.12

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$49.04

Value

$75.3

PnL

+$26.25

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$38.3

Value

$67.28

PnL

+$28.98

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.5

Value

$56.5

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.17

Value

$53.91

PnL

-$7.25

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.42

Value

$17.56

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.2

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.36

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.79

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.21

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.15

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$1.73

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$19.28

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.