Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 0.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$253.15

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 80.5¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,921

Combined PnL-$588.88

Under9 traders

Total Value$771.82

Total Shares4,325

Combined PnL+$335.73

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 89.8¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$254.19	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
fxwd12345	Overavg 92¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$288.61	75% 49-16 (65)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 10.5¢	$311.92	$581.13	+$269.21	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 86.8¢	$418.24	$413.16	-$5.08	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 88.8¢	$419.14	$288.13	-$30.18	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
SM smithagent	Overavg 91.4¢	$112.24	$98.86	-$13.38	45% 653-812 (1465)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$25.36	$55.47	+$30.11	36% 928-1642 (2570)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 92¢	$45.94	$48.43	+$2.5	48% 286-304 (590)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$28.89	$41.68	+$12.78	47% 895-992 (1887)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$34	$35	+$1	37% 957-1658 (2615)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 7.5¢	$13.99	$33.62	+$19.63	36% 945-1666 (2611)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$15.89	$18.54	+$2.65	40% 117-175 (292)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 82¢	$10.58	$10.64	+$0.06	52% 815-747 (1562)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 14.1¢	$3.12	$3.43	+$0.31	37% 74-128 (202)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$1.92	$1.92	-$0	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$1.01	$1.04	+$0.03	35% 438-797 (1235)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,666.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$254.19

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$2,288.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$288.61

Record

75%

49-16 (65)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$311.92

Value

$581.13

PnL

+$269.21

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$418.24

Value

$413.16

PnL

-$5.08

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$419.14

Value

$288.13

PnL

-$30.18

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

smithagent

Over

Invested

$112.24

Value

$98.86

PnL

-$13.38

Record

45%

653-812 (1465)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.36

Value

$55.47

PnL

+$30.11

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$45.94

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.89

Value

$41.68

PnL

+$12.78

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34

Value

$35

PnL

+$1

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.99

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$19.63

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.89

Value

$18.54

PnL

+$2.65

Record

40%

117-175 (292)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

74-128 (202)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.