Spread: Kosovo (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Israel (40%) · Israel at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Kosovo23¢Israel77¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Israel

Consensus Traders

Israel 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$13.84

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 77.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralIsrael at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Israel

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kosovo23%

Israel78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Israel4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL+$13.46

Kosovo6 traders

Total Value$20.53

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.37

Israel — 40%Kosovo — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Israel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIsrael 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedIsrael 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Israel 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Israelavg 71¢	$925.78	$938.82	+$13.04	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Israelavg 69.4¢	$446.52	$432.81	-$13.71	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Israel leg	Israelavg 69.4¢	$258.75	$289.06	+$30.31
└ Kosovo leg	Kosovoavg 29.4¢	$187.77	$143.74	-$44.02
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Israelavg 71¢	$134.5	$135.5	+$1	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Israel leg	Israelavg 71¢	$106.5	$106.5	+$0
└ Kosovo leg	Kosovoavg 28¢	$28	$29	+$1
FaroeseNationalist<$100	Israelavg 72¢	$36.33	$36.33	+$0	52% 17-16 (33)
GH ghorrock<$100	Israelavg 71.5¢	$44.34	$32.23	+$0.42	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
0xheavy888<$100	Israelavg 72¢	$26.07	$26.07	-$0	54% 493-416 (909)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kosovoavg 28¢	$10.36	$10.73	+$0.37	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kosovoavg 23¢	$3.45	$3.53	+$0.08	37% 966-1631 (2597)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kosovoavg 29¢	$3.17	$3.06	-$0.11	42% 991-1360 (2351)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kosovoavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kosovoavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.17	+$0.02	36% 928-1642 (2570)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Kosovoavg 22¢	$0.58	$0.59	+$0.01	53% 2083-1825 (3908)

RN1

Israel

Invested

$925.78

Value

$938.82

PnL

+$13.04

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Israel

Invested

$446.52

Value

$432.81

PnL

-$13.71

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Israel$258.7569.4¢+$30.31

Kosovo$187.7729.4¢-$44.02

38791873984189ARB<$100

Israel

Invested

$134.5

Value

$135.5

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Israel$106.571¢+$0

Kosovo$2828¢+$1

FaroeseNationalist<$100

Israel

Invested

$36.33

Value

$36.33

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

17-16 (33)

ghorrock<$100

Israel

Invested

$44.34

Value

$32.23

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

0xheavy888<$100

Israel

Invested

$26.07

Value

$26.07

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$0.37

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.11

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

LimousinCTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Research grade

NeutralIsrael at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Israel

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Israel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIsrael 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedIsrael 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Israel 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Israel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.