Spread: Israel (-2.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kosovo (20%) · Kosovo at 99¢ · $527 held · ended Nov 14

Israel<1¢Kosovo>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kosovo

Consensus Traders

Kosovo 20%

Total Value

$527.11

Combined PnL

-$2.24

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKosovo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kosovo

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Israel1%

Kosovo99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kosovo2 traders

Total Value$468.02

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$8.36

Israel8 traders

Total Value$59.1

Total Shares3,122

Combined PnL+$6.12

Kosovo — 20%Israel — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Kosovoavg 97.5¢	$452.37	$453.77	+$1.39	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Israelavg 1.8¢	$21.5	$24.49	+$2.99	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Kosovoavg 96¢	$24	$14.25	-$9.75	56% 462-367 (829)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Israelavg 1.8¢	$15.17	$13.48	-$1.69	36% 928-1642 (2570)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Israelavg 1.4¢	$7.5	$10.96	+$3.47	48% 286-304 (590)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Israelavg 1.8¢	$2.93	$3.37	+$0.44	42% 991-1360 (2351)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Israelavg 1.8¢	$2.16	$2.46	+$0.3	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Israelavg 1.8¢	$1.87	$2.13	+$0.26	37% 966-1631 (2597)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Israelavg 1.5¢	$1.47	$1.57	+$0.1	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
RN1CTR<$100	Israelavg 0.6¢	$0.38	$0.63	+$0.25	55% 5362-4303 (9665)

GoalLineGhost

Kosovo

Invested

$452.37

Value

$453.77

PnL

+$1.39

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$21.5

Value

$24.49

PnL

+$2.99

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Kosovo

Invested

$24

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$9.75

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

LimousinCTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$15.17

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$1.69

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$7.5

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$3.47

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

sentrioCTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.44

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.26

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

RN1CTR<$100

Israel

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

Research grade

NeutralKosovo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kosovo

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kosovo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.