Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Kosovo leading at halftime?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
$474.61
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$107.79 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 66.1¢ | $850.26 | $1.2K | +$369.3 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 94¢ | $858.53 | $913.33 | +$54.8 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $186.44 | $100 | -$86.44 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $82 | $100 | +$18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7¢ | $104.44 | — | -$104.44 | |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $70.9 | $70 | +$4.1 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $112.86 | — | -$66.5 | 48% 3214-3513 (6727) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.19 | $11.99 | +$4.8 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $6.94 | $9.51 | +$2.57 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $2.24 | — | -$2.24 | 37% 1028-1723 (2751) |
Invested
$2,338.26
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$107.79
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$850.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$369.3
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$858.53
Value
$913.33
PnL
+$54.8
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$186.44
Value
$100
PnL
-$86.44
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.9
Value
$70
PnL
+$4.1
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$112.86
Value
—
PnL
-$66.5
Record
48%
3214-3513 (6727)
Invested
$7.19
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$4.8
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$9.51
PnL
+$2.57
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
Invested
$2.24
Value
—
PnL
-$2.24
Record
37%
1028-1723 (2751)