Exact Score: Kosovo 1 - 0 Israel?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 89¢ · $519 held · ends Nov 14

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$518.56

Combined PnL

$17.56

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 88.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$509.77

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$17.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.79

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.43

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 88¢	$252.09	$253.52	+$1.43	36% 945-1666 (2611)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 88¢	$63.84	$63.11	-$0.73	36% 928-1642 (2570)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 87¢	$54.07	$55.01	+$0.93	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 88¢	$50.96	$51.25	+$0.29	37% 957-1658 (2615)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$45.75	$39.42	+$14.94	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 88¢	$23.96	$24.1	+$0.14	35% 438-797 (1235)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 88¢	$23.22	$23.35	+$0.13	37% 966-1630 (2596)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$7.81	$8.17	+$0.36	48% 286-304 (590)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.63	+$0.07	49% 3807-3970 (7777)

Venusian

Invested

$252.09

Value

$253.52

PnL

+$1.43

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$63.84

Value

$63.11

PnL

-$0.73

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$54.07

Value

$55.01

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$50.96

Value

$51.25

PnL

+$0.29

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$45.75

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$14.94

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$23.96

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$0.14

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$23.22

Value

$23.35

PnL

+$0.13

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.