Exact Score: Kosovo 0 - 0 Israel?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$200.65

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 80.5¢

-12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,696

Combined PnL-$1.64

Yes8 traders

Total Value$402.16

Total Shares2,171

Combined PnL+$202.29

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 92¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$3.66	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$77.55	$176.69	+$99.14	37% 957-1658 (2615)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$63.06	$136.63	+$73.57	37% 966-1631 (2597)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 83.3¢	$424.56	$80.14	+$28.48	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 86¢	$53.32	$53.32	+$0	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$28.22	$37.96	+$9.73	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 92¢	$48.65	$33.05	-$15.6	48% 286-304 (590)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 93¢	$46.5	$31.25	-$15.25	37% 353-603 (956)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$18.4	$27.45	+$9.05	36% 945-1666 (2611)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23.45	$20.52	-$2.93	54% 478-400 (878)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$8.69	$13.48	+$4.79	47% 895-992 (1887)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1	$5.35	+$4.36	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.9	$3.48	+$1.58	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.05	$1.13	+$0.07	48% 2067-2229 (4296)

RN1

Invested

$1,345.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$3.66

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.55

Value

$176.69

PnL

+$99.14

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$63.06

Value

$136.63

PnL

+$73.57

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

38791873984189

Invested

$424.56

Value

$80.14

PnL

+$28.48

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$53.32

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.22

Value

$37.96

PnL

+$9.73

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$48.65

Value

$33.05

PnL

-$15.6

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$15.25

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$9.05

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$23.45

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$2.93

Record

54%

478-400 (878)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$13.48

PnL

+$4.79

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$4.36

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$1.58

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.