Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kosovo vs. Israel end in a draw?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$11.87

Smart Money Entry

24.3¢ → 24.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,389

Combined PnL+$11.87

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$522.49	$533.38	+$10.89	56% 5349-4286 (9635)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$456	$446.88	-$9.12	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$290.93	$296.99	+$6.06	40% 114-172 (286)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$273.67	$279.32	+$5.65	37% 351-601 (952)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$180	$183.75	+$3.75
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$93.67	$95.57	+$1.9
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$202	$206.21	+$4.21	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$188.04	$191.63	+$3.59	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$97.5	$95.55	-$1.95	42% 979-1345 (2324)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$24.43	$24.93	+$0.5	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$21.67	$19.36	-$2.31	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	46% 2546-3015 (5561)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$522.49

Value

$533.38

PnL

+$10.89

Record

56%

5349-4286 (9635)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$456

Value

$446.88

PnL

-$9.12

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$290.93

Value

$296.99

PnL

+$6.06

Record

40%

114-172 (286)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$273.67

Value

$279.32

PnL

+$5.65

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

Both legs:

Invested

$202

Value

$206.21

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.04

Value

$191.63

PnL

+$3.59

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.5

Value

$95.55

PnL

-$1.95

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.43

Value

$24.93

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.67

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$2.31

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.