Kosovo vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$116.12

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 74¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,121

Combined PnL+$407.67

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,360

Combined PnL-$291.55

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 61.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$401.35	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$347.35	$321.15	-$26.2	20% 7-28 (35)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$315.69	$289.77	-$25.93	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 47.4¢	$510.34	$225.33	-$219.72	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$56.7	$60.41	+$3.71	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$86.85	$58.72	-$28.13	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$33.47	$37.51	+$4.04	45% 801-984 (1785)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$30.43	$36.64	+$6.21	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46¢	$7.88	$7.96	+$0.09	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$4.61	$5.22	+$0.61	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$4.51	$4.55	+$0.04	54% 493-416 (909)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 72¢	$2.6	$2.62	+$0.02	37% 74-128 (202)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.16	+$0.03	48% 286-304 (590)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,870.31

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$401.35

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$347.35

Value

$321.15

PnL

-$26.2

Record

20%

7-28 (35)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$315.69

Value

$289.77

PnL

-$25.93

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$510.34

Value

$225.33

PnL

-$219.72

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.7

Value

$60.41

PnL

+$3.71

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.85

Value

$58.72

PnL

-$28.13

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.47

Value

$37.51

PnL

+$4.04

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$30.43

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$6.21

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.88

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

foooool<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

74-128 (202)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.