Italy vs. France: O/U 6.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$79.99

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,693

Combined PnL-$62.93

Over3 traders

Total Value$38.64

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL-$17.06

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 96.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$54.67	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 5¢	$440.28	$325.84	-$114.45	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Over leg	Overavg 5¢	$314.86	$199.94	-$114.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 96.5¢	$125.42	$125.9	+$0.48
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 96.1¢	$110.88	$111.12	+$0.23	42% 97-133 (230)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 96.5¢	$151.56	$34.42	-$8.31	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 96.6¢	$26.74	$26.66	-$0.08	54% 1032-892 (1924)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 3.1¢	$21.17	$20.45	-$0.72	35% 221-416 (637)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$25	$12.49	-$12.51	33% 585-1187 (1772)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$9.53	$5.71	-$3.82	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.75	-$0.1	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,470.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$54.67

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$440.28

Value

$325.84

PnL

-$114.45

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Over$314.865¢-$114.92

Under$125.4296.5¢+$0.48

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$110.88

Value

$111.12

PnL

+$0.23

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$151.56

Value

$34.42

PnL

-$8.31

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$26.74

Value

$26.66

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.17

Value

$20.45

PnL

-$0.72

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$12.49

PnL

-$12.51

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.53

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$3.82

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.