Italy vs. France: O/U 5.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 91¢ · $875 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$874.59
$11.31
91¢ → 91¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 91¢ | $614.84 | $620.76 | +$5.92 | 51% 2572-2488 (5060) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 91¢ | $155.71 | $155.71 | -$0 | 48% 2245-2429 (4674) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $48.13 | $47.6 | -$0.53 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $12.5 | $17.85 | +$5.34 | 41% 562-806 (1368) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $17.1 | $17.29 | +$0.19 | 40% 80-118 (198) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $10.11 | $10.11 | -$0 | 55% 1658-1365 (3023) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.5¢ | $3.8 | $3.61 | -$0.19 | 47% 1656-1884 (3540) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $1.74 | $1.66 | +$0.58 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
Invested
$614.84
Value
$620.76
PnL
+$5.92
Record
51%
2572-2488 (5060)
Invested
$155.71
Value
$155.71
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2245-2429 (4674)
Invested
$48.13
Value
$47.6
PnL
-$0.53
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$5.34
Record
41%
562-806 (1368)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$17.29
PnL
+$0.19
Record
40%
80-118 (198)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.11
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
1658-1365 (3023)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.61
PnL
-$0.19
Record
47%
1656-1884 (3540)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0.58
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.