Italy vs. France: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 80¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$3.1K
$0.46
81¢ → 80¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Underavg 81¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$30.44 | 65% 17-9 (26) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 19¢ | $414.63 | $436.72 | +$22.1 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 19¢ | $132.45 | $139.42 | +$6.97 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $34.82 | $36.65 | +$1.83 | 35% 266-489 (755) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $26.93 | $26.92 | -$0 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$2,465.51
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$30.44
Record
65%
17-9 (26)
Invested
$414.63
Value
$436.72
PnL
+$22.1
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$132.45
Value
$139.42
PnL
+$6.97
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
Invested
$34.82
Value
$36.65
PnL
+$1.83
Record
35%
266-489 (755)
Invested
$26.93
Value
$26.92
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.