Italy vs. France: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$29.62

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,613

Combined PnL+$44.49

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,131

Combined PnL-$14.87

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 57¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$42.14	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
JO jole24CTR	Underavg 43¢	$860	$850	-$10	— 8-10 (18)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 42¢	$564.04	$576.26	+$12.22	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$314.49	$322.25	+$7.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$249.56	$254.01	+$4.46
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44¢	$305.4	$298.46	-$6.94	32% 524-1097 (1621)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 42¢	$129.57	$131.91	+$2.34	41% 534-766 (1300)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$72.6	$73.42	+$0.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$56.97	$58.49	+$1.53
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 57¢	$88.72	$89.5	+$0.78	59% 3534-2412 (5946)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 42.9¢	$157.21	$82.26	+$0.05	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 40.5¢	$56.51	$60	+$3.49	52% 183-166 (349)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$43.11	$41.64	-$1.47	33% 546-1093 (1639)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 57¢	$62.56	$26.34	+$1.58	53% 920-807 (1727)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$5.97	$5.97	+$0	32% 530-1111 (1641)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,803.45

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$42.14

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

jole24CTR

Under

Invested

$860

Value

$850

PnL

-$10

Record

—

8-10 (18)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$564.04

Value

$576.26

PnL

+$12.22

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

Both legs:

Under$314.4942¢+$7.76

Over$249.5656¢+$4.46

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$305.4

Value

$298.46

PnL

-$6.94

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$129.57

Value

$131.91

PnL

+$2.34

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

Both legs:

Invested

$88.72

Value

$89.5

PnL

+$0.78

Record

59%

3534-2412 (5946)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$157.21

Value

$82.26

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.51

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.49

Record

52%

183-166 (349)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.11

Value

$41.64

PnL

-$1.47

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$62.56

Value

$26.34

PnL

+$1.58

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.