Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Italy vs. France: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 21¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$480.63
-$5.04
18.8¢ → 20.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 18.8¢ | $361.18 | $393.39 | +$32.22 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 80¢ | $104.08 | $65.05 | -$39.03 | 61% 927-593 (1520) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $11.34 | $12.6 | +$1.26 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $5.7 | $5.84 | +$0.14 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $3.37 | $3.75 | +$0.37 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
Invested
$361.18
Value
$393.39
PnL
+$32.22
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$104.08
Value
$65.05
PnL
-$39.03
Record
61%
927-593 (1520)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$1.26
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.84
PnL
+$0.14
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.