Italy vs. France: O/U 0.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 95¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$7.1K
-$5.64
95.2¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Overavg 95.2¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | -$47.51 | 96% 22-1 (23) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 5¢ | $203.52 | $223.87 | +$20.35 | 46% 420-485 (905) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 4.7¢ | $119.7 | $140.35 | +$20.65 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $38.24 | $38.24 | -$0 | 42% 290-405 (695) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $3.48 | $4.35 | +$0.87 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.58 | $0.58 | -$0 | 41% 525-744 (1269) |
Invested
$6,711.24
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$47.51
Record
96%
22-1 (23)
Invested
$203.52
Value
$223.87
PnL
+$20.35
Record
46%
420-485 (905)
Invested
$119.7
Value
$140.35
PnL
+$20.65
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
Invested
$38.24
Value
$38.24
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
290-405 (695)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.87
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
525-744 (1269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.