Italy vs. France: Italy O/U 0.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 100¢ · $217 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 56%
$217.19
-$15.03
75.2¢ → 100¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 66.4¢ | $64.47 | $96.99 | +$32.52 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 92.9¢ | $59.45 | $63.97 | +$4.52 | 59% 39-27 (66) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $16.45 | $21.23 | +$4.77 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.2¢ | $53.32 | $13.03 | -$40.29 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $14.98 | $11.7 | +$0.51 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $5.31 | $9 | +$3.69 | 29% 206-510 (716) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $5 | $1.25 | -$3.75 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $16.26 | $0.03 | -$16.23 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $0.77 | $0.01 | -$0.76 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
Invested
$64.47
Value
$96.99
PnL
+$32.52
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$63.97
PnL
+$4.52
Record
59%
39-27 (66)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$21.23
PnL
+$4.77
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$53.32
Value
$13.03
PnL
-$40.29
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
Invested
$14.98
Value
$11.7
PnL
+$0.51
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$5.31
Value
$9
PnL
+$3.69
Record
29%
206-510 (716)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$3.75
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$16.26
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$16.23
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.76
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.