Italy vs. France: France O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 72¢ · $811 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$810.66
-$3.43
60.3¢ → 72¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 65.9¢ | $281.38 | $291.53 | +$10.15 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 65.9¢ | $210.39 | $223.47 | +$13.08 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 31.3¢ | $70.99 | $68.07 | -$2.92 | |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 63.4¢ | $275.74 | $280.46 | +$4.71 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49¢ | $106.65 | $140.38 | +$33.74 | 56% 4529-3502 (8031) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $42.34 | $34.9 | -$7.44 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $52.02 | $28.56 | -$23.46 | 45% 563-680 (1243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 73.5¢ | $19.51 | $18.55 | -$0.96 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $24.99 | $13.72 | -$11.27 | 43% 374-496 (870) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $2.55 | +$1.25 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
Invested
$281.38
Value
$291.53
PnL
+$10.15
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Both legs:
Invested
$275.74
Value
$280.46
PnL
+$4.71
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
RN1Invested
$106.65
Value
$140.38
PnL
+$33.74
Record
56%
4529-3502 (8031)
Invested
$42.34
Value
$34.9
PnL
-$7.44
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$52.02
Value
$28.56
PnL
-$23.46
Record
45%
563-680 (1243)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$18.55
PnL
-$0.96
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$11.27
Record
43%
374-496 (870)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$1.25
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.