Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Italy vs. France: France O/U 1.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 48¢ · $238 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$238.24
$3.08
46.4¢ → 48¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $81.88 | $80.33 | -$1.54 | 61% 956-608 (1564) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $72.61 | $74.15 | +$1.54 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $27.01 | $28.81 | +$1.8 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $17.77 | $17.77 | +$0 | 46% 438-515 (953) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.7¢ | $15.02 | $16.51 | +$1.48 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $8.68 | $8.86 | +$0.18 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $8.49 | $8.37 | -$0.12 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $2.31 | $2.04 | -$0.27 | 78% 123-34 (157) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $1.39 | $1.39 | +$0 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$81.88
Value
$80.33
PnL
-$1.54
Record
61%
956-608 (1564)
Invested
$72.61
Value
$74.15
PnL
+$1.54
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$27.01
Value
$28.81
PnL
+$1.8
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$17.77
Value
$17.77
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
438-515 (953)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$16.51
PnL
+$1.48
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$8.86
PnL
+$0.18
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$8.49
Value
$8.37
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$2.04
PnL
-$0.27
Record
78%
123-34 (157)
Invested
$1.39
Value
$1.39
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.