Spread: France (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Italy (50%) · Italy at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

France1¢Italy99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Italy

Consensus Traders

Italy 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$33.74

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 98.6¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralItaly at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Italy

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

France1%

Italy99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Italy5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$107.74

France5 traders

Total Value$17.59

Total Shares963

Combined PnL-$73.99

Italy — 50%France — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Italy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFrance 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Italy 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Italyavg 91.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$84.61	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhost	Italyavg 95.2¢	$520.14	$537.7	+$17.57	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873	Italyavg 93.4¢	$499.55	$97.32	+$2.75	4% 1-25 (26)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Italyavg 92.6¢	$56.56	$59.28	+$2.72	54% 211-181 (392)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Franceavg 11.1¢	$80.63	$11.59	-$69.03	46% 485-564 (1049)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Italyavg 89.3¢	$4.8	$4.9	+$0.1	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Franceavg 5¢	$1.49	$2.67	+$1.18	32% 565-1192 (1757)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Franceavg 4.5¢	$6.32	$2.25	-$4.07	41% 589-849 (1438)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Franceavg 5.1¢	$2.92	$0.92	-$2	54% 1032-892 (1924)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Franceavg 2.3¢	$0.24	$0.16	-$0.07	48% 2298-2502 (4800)

Flaznorp

Italy

Invested

$1,179.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$84.61

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhost

Italy

Invested

$520.14

Value

$537.7

PnL

+$17.57

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873

Italy

Invested

$499.55

Value

$97.32

PnL

+$2.75

Record

1-25 (26)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Italy

Invested

$56.56

Value

$59.28

PnL

+$2.72

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

France

Invested

$80.63

Value

$11.59

PnL

-$69.03

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

ferdinand2<$100

Italy

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

VenusianCTR<$100

France

Invested

$1.49

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$1.18

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

sentrioCTR<$100

France

Invested

$6.32

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$4.07

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

ghorrockCTR<$100

France

Invested

$2.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

38791873984189CTR<$100

France

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Research grade

NeutralItaly at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Italy

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Italy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFrance 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Italy 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Italy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.