Spread: France (-2.5)
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Italy (100%) · Italy at 89¢ · $814 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Italy
8
Italy 100%
$814.08
-$2.72
88.6¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralItaly at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Italy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Italyavg 90¢ | $285.71 | $279.36 | -$6.35 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
38 38791873984189 | Italyavg 88¢ | $388.65 | $175.95 | +$3 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
FL Flaznorp | Italyavg 87.6¢ | $104.25 | $104.48 | +$0.23 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Italyavg 88¢ | $81.12 | $81.12 | +$0 | 55% 1645-1352 (2997) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Italyavg 88¢ | $66.3 | $66.3 | +$0 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Italyavg 88¢ | $86.71 | $48.31 | +$0.55 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Italyavg 88¢ | $43.92 | $43.92 | -$0 | 40% 78-117 (195) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Italyavg 88.3¢ | $14.79 | $14.64 | -$0.15 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
Invested
$285.71
Value
$279.36
PnL
-$6.35
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$388.65
Value
$175.95
PnL
+$3
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$104.25
Value
$104.48
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$81.12
Value
$81.12
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1645-1352 (2997)
Invested
$66.3
Value
$66.3
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$86.71
Value
$48.31
PnL
+$0.55
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Invested
$43.92
Value
$43.92
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
78-117 (195)
Invested
$14.79
Value
$14.64
PnL
-$0.15
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.