Spread: France (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Italy (100%) · Italy at 73¢ · $741 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Italy
5
Italy 100%
$741.18
$6.1
71.9¢ → 72.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralItaly at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Italy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Italyavg 71.9¢ | $492.3 | $496.42 | +$4.12 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
38 38791873984189 | Italyavg 73¢ | $113.96 | $112.72 | -$1.24 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Italyavg 69.7¢ | $77.97 | $65.66 | +$2.57 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Italyavg 71.2¢ | $53.04 | $54.03 | +$0.99 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Italyavg 74¢ | $12.69 | $12.35 | -$0.34 | 54% 462-396 (858) |
Invested
$492.3
Value
$496.42
PnL
+$4.12
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$113.96
Value
$112.72
PnL
-$1.24
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$77.97
Value
$65.66
PnL
+$2.57
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$53.04
Value
$54.03
PnL
+$0.99
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.35
PnL
-$0.34
Record
54%
462-396 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.