Italy leading at halftime?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $772 held · ended Nov 12

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$771.85

Combined PnL

$21.29

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 81.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$771.85

Total Shares988

Combined PnL+$21.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 75¢	$293.07	$300.88	+$7.82	46% 443-515 (958)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75¢	$201	$206.36	+$5.36	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
LI Limousin	Noavg 78.2¢	$97.21	$102.49	+$5.28	33% 539-1116 (1655)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 78¢	$81.18	$83.77	+$2.59	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.5	$32.34	+$0.84	52% 192-174 (366)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 75¢	$37.5	$22.33	-$1.17	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 75¢	$13.01	$13.36	+$0.35	36% 209-370 (579)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75¢	$6.74	$6.92	+$0.18	54% 997-856 (1853)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.35	$3.39	+$0.04	40% 80-118 (198)

SnakeBall

Invested

$293.07

Value

$300.88

PnL

+$7.82

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$201

Value

$206.36

PnL

+$5.36

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Limousin

Invested

$97.21

Value

$102.49

PnL

+$5.28

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$81.18

Value

$83.77

PnL

+$2.59

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$0.84

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$1.17

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$13.01

Value

$13.36

PnL

+$0.35

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.