Italy vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$1.2K
$42.38
84.8¢ → 90¢
+6% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 85¢ | $656.17 | $690.95 | +$34.78 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 84¢ | $248.93 | $212.32 | +$4.72 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 84.9¢ | $88.5 | $89.13 | +$0.63 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $55.3 | $56.6 | +$1.3 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $56.46 | $56.46 | +$0 | 43% 2584-3425 (6009) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $43.03 | $43.55 | +$0.51 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.1 | +$0.1 | 60% 675-453 (1128) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $15.83 | $16.06 | +$0.23 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $8.54 | $8.64 | +$0.1 | 52% 192-174 (366) |
Invested
$656.17
Value
$690.95
PnL
+$34.78
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$248.93
Value
$212.32
PnL
+$4.72
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$88.5
Value
$89.13
PnL
+$0.63
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$55.3
Value
$56.6
PnL
+$1.3
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
Invested
$56.46
Value
$56.46
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2584-3425 (6009)
Invested
$43.03
Value
$43.55
PnL
+$0.51
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
60%
675-453 (1128)
Invested
$15.83
Value
$16.06
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
192-174 (366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.